UArizona Applied Math COVID-19 Working Group

The tree of relationships among viral samples can provide a window into how the virus has spread through a population.  Statistical methods allow us to estimate this phylogenetic tree from viral genetic sequences taken from different infected people.  To that tree we can then fit models of viral growth and spread to obtain estimates of quantities such as the true number of infected people, or the extent of new introductions into a region versus local spread within that region.  I will discuss how these models work, and how our team is using them to learn about the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Mountain West region.

Zoom: https://arizona.zoom.us/j/183045568  (begins at 12:30pm AZ Time - please do not log on before that time)