Parameter Estimation for Epidemiological Models
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Abstract: Part I Adrienne Kinney: Predicting infectious disease spread relies on accurate estimation of model parameters. While traditionally epidemiological models are visualized via plots of disease incidence versus time, the use of Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves proves advantageous for parameter identification and forecasting purposes. In this talk I introduce the theoretical framework for ICC curves and discuss parameter identification, including robustness of the method to noise and under- or over- reporting. This method is used for estimating the the basic reproductive rate, R0, of COVID-19, and shown to agree with early R0 estimates published in literature. Original publication by Joceline Lega 2020.
Part II Matthew Miller: TBA
Zoom: https://arizona.zoom.us/j/96503157705 Password: “arizona” (all lower case)